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James Wilkes's avatar

Nicely put Bryce: “His political genius was always in identifying what voters were angry about. His failure has been in never delivering solutions once in power.” Voters are definitely angry about captured politicians and corporates rolling in profits, so a pivot is totally plausible and as you say even strategically logical. Beneath that dynamic there is also another ‘pivotal’ force building up steam. And that is the dysfunction between the coalition parties ideologies and their leadership. Election mode will amplify these differences significantly.

Equally, Seymour and Peters are not ‘besties’ and Luxon is a dead man walking. That makes negotiating after the 2026 election more than interesting. What does National and / or ACT have to offer NZ First in the context of an angry electorate? Not much, which does suggest support for a pivot. Question or perhaps a Caveat: is Hipkins and Labour as savvy and as pragmatic as Peters and NZ First? Does Winnie choose to finally deliver actual solutions once in power and go out on a high with his legacy vaguely intact or will he be remembered as a populist fraud? We’re going to find out soon.

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Basil Brush's avatar

Populist fraud. Going with Labour in 2026 will oblige NZF to swallow the dead rats of Labour’s He Puapua agenda. Which NZF will do, whatever promises they’ve made to the electorate beforehand. Been there, seen that.

Peters has demonstrated throughout his career that he is a cynical shape shifter, intoxicated with self-importance and the baubles of power. He’s a consummate political spoiler but lacks the skills and courage to drive genuine change once he has his hands on the levers. Peter Dunne’s neither-this-nor-that United party wasn’t much better.

The choices ahead for Kiwi voters are simply dismaying. No party has the vision or conviction (or politicians of calibre) to pull this country out of its plunges into economic and cultural turmoil. If only our voting papers had a No Confidence option.

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James Wilkes's avatar

Arguably, MMP requires significant surgery.

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NZ Global Economics Context's avatar

NO

They are Clayton's Nationalists.

Especially Shane Jones, he is another corporate candy coated poison pill seller kindred brother of David Seymour.

Brilliant at selling Xmas to the turkey's.

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Geoff Fischer's avatar

In the manner of Robert Muldoon, Winston Peters tries to marry economic nationalism to political colonialism. It is one marriage of opposites that simply will not work. After fifty years of trying, it is time for New Zealanders to give up on such a mismatch.

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Aroha's avatar

Ouch.

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Nick Duff's avatar

Very well said Bryce. Sadly, it is I think, symptomatic of a broader & deeper moral malaise afflicting the whole country at the moment. It's got that 'Things fall apart. The center cannot hold' feeling about it. We have the usual Machiavellian 'boil up' from NZ First, shameless self-interest from ACT, Luxon being shaded out by Willis & her mad austerity program, & nepotism splitting Te Paati Maori. In my opinion, so far only Hipkins with his cunningly lightly laid capital gains tax seems to have a workable plan.

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Ron Segal's avatar

Similar thoughts as James. To which I would add that Winston Peters' actions always appear to be dominated by Winston First rather than NZ First.

What a waste of an otherwise brilliant political leader, of which NZ is in dire need.

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Garry Moore's avatar

I hope Labour policy makers and leaders read this article. It's more than time for Hipkins to stop firing bullets in Peters direction, and vice versa.

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Peter Collins's avatar

Seemingly, a world-wide phenomenon. One from which the Scandinavians seem relatively immune. No sense picking out individuals or parties - it's the whole society. And the 'fix'? I fear that will take better brains than mine.

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Rose's avatar

A good read to accompany this series of articles is in The Guardian: Forget petty bribes, ‘state capture’ is corruption so deep it is shaping the rules of democracy itself / Kenneth Mohammed

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/nov/04/state-capture-corruption-democracy

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Douglas Pauling's avatar

Winston always sits on the fence until it suits Winston

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Chris Harris's avatar

'Performative not transformative' seems to be the motto of more than one political party right now!

On a different note, ref this Guardian article on 'state capture:' https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/nov/04/state-capture-corruption-democracy.

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