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Geoff Fischer's avatar

A large section of the commentariat assumes that the economy is behaving differently because the government is not using its economic levers in the time-honored ways.

It may be true that the government is doing things differently. It is not necessarily true that to revert to the old ways would change the outcome.

The New Zealand economy is behaving differently. To put it another way, a structural change is taking place.

Residential property prices have slipped, and show no inclination to rise. For an economy which is "a property market with bits tacked on" in Bernard Hickey's memorable albeit rather exaggerated phrase, that is a crucial about turn. It is quite possible that this marks the end point of the rising residential property market, a development which Chris Bishop welcomes (after all it makes sense to welcome an uninvited guest who cannot be turned away from the door) while the rest of the political establishment stands aside dumbstruck.

However neither Bishop nor anyone else have a plan to deal with the structural change in the New Zealand economy which is being manifest in the property market. Military spending is being escalated at a rate which suggests either that there is no problem ("the money will be there") or that there is no solution ("everything is coming apart, so we forget about trying to maintain a coherent first world society and build an enhanced military force as the solution to everything").

Fonterra's abandonment of value added processing indicates the same state of mind, and almost overnight the commentariat which had been trained to tell us that added value was the only way forward for the New Zealand economy are now telling us that such value adding operations are like an albatross about the economy's neck.

So over the next few years look forward to a flat property market, stalling GDP, dithering politicians, investors bailing from agricultural and forestry processing operations, small and medium service industries failing, and media commentators describing every self-administered blow to the economy as well considered and a "good thing in the long run".

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