News Briefing Top 10 for 29 October 2026
1. Craig McCulloch (RNZ): RNZ-Reid Research poll: National below disastrous 2020 result as Opportunity surges
National is on 24.8% in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, below even its disastrous 2020 result. RNZ’s Craig McCulloch reports that Opportunity has climbed 1.7 points to a new high of 7.2%, and on these numbers Labour (30.6%), the Greens and Opportunity would have 64 seats to the coalition’s 54. National’s campaign chair Simeon Brown says the poll is “out of step with most of the other polls that we’re seeing, including our own”.
2. Tim Murphy (Newsroom): Politicians speak at launch of controversial donor Zhang Yikun’s new chamber
Zhang Yikun, who was prosecuted over concealed donations to National and Labour before the 2017 election, has launched a new business chamber, and both parties sent MPs to speak. Newsroom’s Tim Murphy reports that National’s campaign chair Simeon Brown led its delegation. Labour says its MP Camilla Belich didn’t know Zhang was the host. Zhang’s convictions over the National donations were overturned on appeal, and he was acquitted over the Labour one, but neither party will say whether it returned the money. Geoff Wade of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute calls the new body a United Front influence organ.
3. Bryce Edwards (Democracy Project): Electoral rules shouldn’t depend on who’s in power
Trevor Mallard says the 13-day enrolment cut-off looks like voter suppression from Trump or Hungary, while ministers say they’ve only fixed a slow, error-prone count. I argue the cut-off is a serious mistake that will cost tens of thousands of eligible people their vote, many of them young, but that the Hungary comparison is overblown. Labour introduced election-day enrolment in 2020 against National’s opposition, after officials were told to examine only that option, and so handed the coalition its precedent. Chris Hipkins said in July that significant electoral changes need bipartisan support or a referendum, and I ask how Labour would meet that test if it restores later enrolment.
In the paid “Further Analysis” section, I go through the arguments from left and right. The 2023 count really was a mess, but the figure of 400,000 missing votes is overstated, and nor does the leap from a closed Wainuiomata hall to Orbán’s Hungary. I’m critical of David Seymour’s “dropkick” comments, take a closer look at Richard Prebble’s memories of Labour enrolling voters and at Mike Hosking’s day-one figures, and point out that the official results will never count the people who gave up when they found they were too late.
4. David Fisher (Herald): NZDF resignation: Ex-Chief of Defence Kevin Short reveals 2006 relationship inquiry into Tony Davies met wall of silence (paywalled)
Former Chief of Defence Force Kevin Short has told the Herald’s David Fisher that he ordered an investigation in 2005-06 into rumours that Tony Davies was in a relationship with a junior servicewoman. Nobody would talk, and the allegation, which Davies denied, couldn’t be substantiated. Short concedes it would have been “very hard” for her to speak out against her commanding officer. Almost 20 years later, Davies has resigned and the Public Service Commission is reviewing his 2024 appointment.
5. Henry Cooke (Post): Where are all the manifestos? Labour, National, NZ First defend lack of published documents (paywalled)
Early voting is well under way, yet Labour, National, NZ First, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity still haven’t released manifestos. Only Act and the Greens have. The Post’s Henry Cooke points out that ministers have cited manifesto commitments in six press releases, and that some bureaucratic scrutiny has been skipped for manifesto promises. Chris Hipkins says Labour’s is coming this week, National didn’t answer, and NZ First’s spokesperson shot back: “When are other parties releasing there’s? [sic]”
6. The Overhang: October polling and forecasts
How likely is a coalition that doesn’t need Opportunity? The Overhang puts it at 67%, after running 20,000 simulated elections that factor in electorate results. Using polling up to the 1News-Verian survey ending 25 October, it projects a 131-seat Parliament, with National averaging eight overhang seats and Te Pāti Māori three, and a median result of a bare one-seat majority for National, NZ First and Act. Labour’s chance of governing without Opportunity is just 4%. The modelling predates today’s RNZ-Reid Research poll, which is much better for the left bloc.
7. Lillian Hanly (RNZ): Winston Peters endorses National’s Chris Bishop over NZ First’s Hutt South candidate
NZ First’s Hutt South candidate, Alistair Boyce, backs his leader’s endorsement of Chris Bishop: “We believe in the overhang. If we can get Bish in, it’ll benefit us.” RNZ’s Lillian Hanly reports that Winston Peters praised Bishop’s RMA work while still telling supporters a party vote for National would be wasted. Act and NZ First both stand to gain party votes from the one-tick strategy, at the expense of National’s list MPs, and both have endorsed it. National has rejected it.
8. Danyl McLauchlan (Listener): How can Labour be the most trusted party on the most important issues and still decline in popularity? (paywalled)
In Ipsos polling, 38% of voters think Labour is more competent on health and only 21% trust National, and Labour is also preferred on the cost of living, the economy and housing. So why is it sliding? The Listener’s Danyl McLauchlan thinks polarisation is the likely answer. Voters pick coalitions rather than parties, and the Green and Te Pāti Māori gang-pad visit reminded swing voters who would be at the cabinet table. Peters and Seymour, he writes, are “a known quantity”.
9. Julie Jacobson (Post): Parties set out starkly different visions for the future of the public service (paywalled)
The public service faces further workforce cuts and greater use of digital technology, and the Post’s Julie Jacobson sets out the parties’ competing plans. The coalition is cutting about 14%, or 8700 jobs, by mid-2029, which it says will save $2.4 billion. National wants fewer agencies and more AI. Labour promises to stop the “arbitrary” cuts and rebuild expertise inside government, relying less on consultants, while the Greens would cancel the latest round at a cost of $3.17b and eventually restore roles. Opportunity cares more about what the service achieves than how many people it employs, and Act and NZ First focus on smaller government and removing diversity requirements.
10. Kent Duston (Post): Bank profiteering means the Reserve Bank’s management of the OCR has stopped working (paywalled)
Kent Duston compares bank margins on either side of the Tasman. ANZ New Zealand’s floating mortgage rate sits 3.54% above the OCR, but in Australia the gap is 2.89%. Writing in the Post, the Banking Reform Coalition convener calls that profiteering, citing the Commerce Commission’s 2024 finding that the big four banks are an oligopoly, and argues it is blunting the benefit of a mildly expansionary OCR. Governor Anna Breman has wide powers to act but shows no sign of using them, he says, and a long hard look at the Reserve Bank’s oversight is overdue, with bank profits making life harder for families and businesses.
Below the paywall are 40 more summaries and then 79 further links. They cover Winston Peters’ endorsement of Chris Bishop, whether David Seymour wants to be Finance Minister, who might replace Nicola Willis, voters’ wariness of Swarbrick as Finance Minister, Swarbrick on being National’s bogeyman, Richard Prebble on Labour’s lost enrolment army, the time-off-to-vote confusion, 15% public service cuts being modelled mid-campaign, voters splitting from their parties on tobacco and rates, the coalition red lines, Opportunity as MMP’s next handbrake, the shifting Māori vote, insults at the Māori leaders’ debate, whether the Waitangi Tribunal has run its course, whether the gang saga has cost Labour votes, Anna Breman conceding the election came up, a crowdfunded third supermarket, and an Auckland ICU with sheets on the beds but no staff. Plus today’s cartoons.
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